Recent data indicates a more positive outlook despite concerns about declining U.S. imports. Descartes Systems Group reported that U.S. imports have steadily increased since February, with a 0.3% rise in September, amounting to 2,203,452 twenty-foot equivalent units. Import levels for the first nine months of 2023 were 2.5% higher than in the same period in 2019, pre-COVID. Import volumes in September significantly exceeded pre-pandemic levels, up 8% from September 2019. These positive numbers may be misunderstood when compared to the exceptional import levels during the COVID-era shipping boom of 2021-2022.
Imports from China remain a significant driver of sequential growth. U.S. imports from China accounted for 39.3% of total imports in September, marking a 4.2% increase from August. This strong performance contradicts the talk of nearshoring and supply chain diversification.
While the National Retail Federation (NRF) reduced its full-year import forecast slightly, it still anticipates robust cargo volumes for the rest of the year. The NRF’s outlook remains positive, with imports expected to exceed pre-COVID levels.
However, trans-Pacific spot rates have decreased, indicating a potential weakening of volumes in the fourth quarter. The decline in spot rates aligns with seasonal trends in a non-pandemic year. While there was hope for post-boom returns for container lines, the recent decline in spot rates suggests a more challenging market.
The U.S. import landscape shows resilience and strength, with growth in import volumes and a notable contribution from imports from China, despite some spot-rate fluctuation. The decline in import levels primarily appears significant when compared to the extraordinary COVID-era shipping boom.