The National Retail Federation (NRF) has reported that holiday inventories in the United States remain in good shape, showing no signs of depletion despite U.S. consumers setting new shopping records during the five-day Thanksgiving period. NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay assured reporters that inventory levels are well-balanced, alleviating concerns about overstocked conditions or potential product shortages triggering a late-cycle inventory replenishment push.

During the holiday cycle, which spanned from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, a total of 200.4 million consumers engaged in shopping activities, surpassing last year’s record of 196.7 million shoppers and exceeding NRF’s 2023 expectations by 18 million. Despite concerns over Americans drawing down pandemic-related savings, Shay emphasized that there is still a significant amount of savings “sitting on the sidelines.”

According to a survey conducted by NRF in collaboration with Prosper Insights & Analytics, the average expenditure per shopper on holiday-related items was approximately $321. Physical retail locations attracted 121.4 million shoppers, a slight decrease from the 122.7 million in the previous year, while online shoppers increased to 134.2 million from 130.2 million in 2022.

Notably, nearly half of the surveyed consumers had completed approximately half of their holiday shopping by the end of the five-day cycle. On Black Friday, 76.2 million shoppers visited stores, up from 72.9 million in 2022, while 90.6 million consumers shopped online on that day, compared to 87.2 million the previous year. Cyber Monday saw approximately 4 million fewer online shoppers than in 2022.

NRF’s data aligns with expectations of a 3% to 4% year-over-year increase in holiday spending, projecting a total expenditure ranging between $957.3 billion and $966.6 billion. Notably, none of the survey numbers are adjusted for inflation, as NRF considers it too complex to make such adjustments for every data point.

The NRF defines the holiday season as running from November 1 to December 31, though an increasing number of consumers initiate their shopping as early as October, enticed by promotions pulled forward on the calendar. Matthew Shay highlighted that access to free shipping appears to be a significant factor in persuading undecided online shoppers to make their holiday purchases.

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