The potential impact of El Niño on holiday-related supply chains is a growing concern, adding complexity to managing transportation systems during the already stressful holiday season. El Niño events, known for their unpredictability, disrupt normal weather patterns, causing extreme conditions like snow, ice, floods, and storms. Businesses struggle to prepare in advance, but enterprise meteorologists and weather-risk communicators offer real-time insights tailored to specific industries, geographies, and transportation modes.
In the maritime sector, winter challenges are compounded during El Niño years. Winter storms, freezing spray, and strong waves pose risks to container ships, potentially causing delays or cargo loss. El Niño’s influence on global precipitation patterns can affect canals, such as the Panama Canal, leading to shipping lane restrictions due to low water levels. Shipping companies must adapt, redistributing loads, exploring alternative routes, and managing weight and depth limits.
Aviation is also impacted, as El Niño affects the jet stream, influencing plane speed and fuel consumption. The combined effects of winter’s strong jet streams and El Niño create additional challenges for air transportation during the holiday season. Overall, the unpredictability of El Niño poses a significant threat to supply chains, requiring flexibility and proactive measures to mitigate potential disruptions.
Airport operations teams closely monitor weather conditions for potential delays caused by snow, ice, and high winds. El Niño’s impact on the southern U.S. during the holiday season raises concerns, bringing wetter and colder weather, potentially leading to icy conditions and severe weather. In contrast, the northern U.S. is expected to experience drier and warmer conditions, but Arctic swings may bring winter storms.
Research indicates that El Niño is linked to a 50% increase in moderate-to-severe clear-air turbulence (CAT) over parts of the U.S. and North Atlantic. While turbulence doesn’t directly affect the supply chain, it poses a risk to air travel safety, causing injuries and economic implications, with an estimated $500 million in damage and delays annually.
Over-the-road transportation is also susceptible to weather-related delays, costing the freight industry up to $9 billion annually. U.S.-based parcel companies leverage advanced weather intelligence, with some having dedicated meteorology teams or partnering with weather companies to anticipate and manage weather-related disruptions. Remaining vigilant and implementing proactive measures based on real-time weather insights are crucial for minimizing disruptions and ensuring a smooth flow of goods and services during the holiday season.
Inspired by: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimfoerster/2023/12/05/el-nino-may-impact-holiday-related-supply-chains/?sh=340d021460c4